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What is likely to happen to GBP/CAD in October 2025
GBP/CAD is currently in your favor if you’re sending money from the UK to Canada.
Strong UK inflation and Bank of England caution are helping hold up the Pound, while weaker economic signals and lower oil prices are weighing on the Canadian Dollar.
Chart trends point to more upside for GBP, but expect short-term swings.
Keep an eye on UK inflation data and Canadian oil prices in the coming weeks, and don’t wait too long if you're looking to make a transfer at a good rate.
GBP to CAD: Where It Stands
Here’s a quick look at where the British Pound (GBP) stands against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) at the start of this month.
The GBP/CAD exchange rate is currently trading around 1.88, which is close to its highest levels in nearly three months.
This means the Pound has recently strengthened against the Canadian Dollar, making it more favorable for people sending money from the UK to Canada.
What’s Driving GBP to CAD?
Several key events and trends are behind the recent movement in GBP to CAD.
Central Banks
The main driver is the difference in how the two countries’ central banks are dealing with interest rates.
Last week, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.5%, which weakens the CAD.
In contrast, the Bank of England is keeping rates steady at 4% to fight inflation, which helps the Pound stay strong.
Inflation
UK inflation is still high at 3.8%, so the Bank of England is less likely to cut rates soon.
This keeps the Pound in demand.
Oil Prices
Canada's economy depends a lot on oil exports. Oil has been volatile lately.
When oil prices fall, the Canadian Dollar weakens. This benefits the Pound in the GBP/CAD pair.
Economic Data
Both the UK's and Canada’s economies show signs of slowing, but the UK is holding up a bit better for now.
In Canada, weaker employment and business data are a concern, adding pressure on CAD.
What Do the Charts Say?
Let’s break down what technical analysts (chart watchers) are seeing.
GBP/CAD recently broke above key levels between 1.8698 and 1.8742. That’s a strong sign the Pound is in control.
The next important level to watch is around 1.8830. If the price moves above that, it could go even higher.
But traders also noticed a “bearish engulfing pattern” at that resistance area, which could mean a short-term pullback or pause in the uptrend.
So, while the bigger picture points toward a stronger Pound, we could see some brief ups and downs.
What to Watch Next Month
There are several important updates coming that could affect the exchange rate:
UK Economic Data: Look out for updates on UK GDP, inflation, and employment. Strong results will likely push the Pound higher.
Canada’s Jobs and Oil Prices: If Canadian jobs data disappoints and oil prices stay low, that could push CAD even lower.
Central Bank Updates: Any comments from the Bank of England or Bank of Canada can shift the market, especially if they hint at future rate decisions.
Risks Ahead
Here are the main risks that could shake things up:
Surprise UK Weakness: If UK data turns out worse than expected (like falling retail sales or rising unemployment), the Pound could weaken quickly.
Oil Price Spikes: If global oil prices jump unexpectedly, it could strengthen CAD and push GBP/CAD lower.
Global Uncertainty: Any shocks to global markets (like new trade tensions or major economic surprises in the U.S.) could increase volatility, making currency prices less predictable.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to CAD Abroad
If you're planning to send money from the UK to Canada, this could be a good time to act.
The Pound is stronger than it has been in several weeks, meaning you’ll get more Canadian Dollars for every Pound.
If the exchange rate crosses above 1.8830 in the next few days, it could go even higher.
But unpredictable events like oil price changes or weaker UK data could suddenly reverse the trend. So if you need to send money soon, consider locking in a rate or using a transfer service with rate alerts.
Live GBP to CAD exchange rates
Converting GBP to CAD
If you are planning to send GBP to Canada, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most CAD on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in October:
Money transfer company | GBP/CAD exchange rate | GBP/CAD fee | GBP/CAD transfer time | CAD received |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wise (Best GBP/CAD rate) | 1.8801 GBP/CAD | 20.01 | next day | 11,243.04 |
Key Currency (Lowest Fee) | 1.8776 GBP/CAD | 0 | minutes - 3 days | 11,265.36 |
Key Currency (Overall cheapest) | 1.8776 GBP/CAD | 0 | minutes - 3 days | 11,265.36 |
Currencyflow (Fastest Option) | 1.8774 GBP/CAD | 0 | minutes - 24 hours | 11,264.23 |
*Based on our data of £6,000 transfer from the UK to Canada in October 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.
History of the GBP to CAD pair
The GBP/CAD pair has had a long history due to the close trading relationship between the UK and Canada.
They both are western allies and members of the G7, G20, OECD, and other organizations.
The British pound was first introduced in 1,489 and was the most used currency for centuries.
It was also used in most British colonial countries, including Canada which shifted from sterling to the Canadian dollar in 1,858.
The Canadian dollar has done better than the British pound over the years as the role of the UK in global affairs has diminished.
Indeed, the GBP to CAD pair has dropped from a high of 2.8 in December 1980 to the current 1.61, which is a ~44% decline.
The British pound has struggled because of the rising challenges faced by the country.
In 2016, the country voted to leave the European Union (EU), its biggest trading partner but this resulted in struggles faced by several core sectors in the country.
For example, the automobile sector which employed millions of people has shrunk as the number of cars manufactured in 2022 dropped to the lowest point since the 1950s.
On the other hand, Canada has benefited from its close relationship with the United States and the robust energy markets.
It has emerged as a top player in other commodities like gold and silver; and is the fourth-biggest oil producer in the world after the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The chart below shows the performance of the GBP/CAD pair since 1975.
| Date | 1 Pound Sterling in CAD |
|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025 | 1.868574 CAD |
| Sep 27, 2025 | 1.872486 CAD |
| Sep 28, 2025 | 1.868846 CAD |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 1.869909 CAD |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 1.871822 CAD |
| Oct 01, 2025 | 1.879048 CAD |
| Oct 02, 2025 | 1.877285 CAD |
| Oct 03, 2025 | 1.882266 CAD |
| Oct 04, 2025 | 1.895049 CAD |
| Oct 05, 2025 | 1.895049 CAD |
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