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What is likely to happen to USD/CAD in July 2025
USD/CAD is trending higher, with strong US economic data and a softer Canadian outlook pushing the pair toward 1.40 or even 1.4150 levels.
If US data stays strong and Canada's economy struggles, the USD may gain further.
For those sending money from the U.S. to Canada, this likely means better value on transfers.
Keep an eye on jobs and inflation updates, they could shift the trend quickly.
USD to CAD: Where It Stands
A quick look at current levels.
The US dollar (USD) has recently gained strength against the Canadian dollar (CAD), with the USD/CAD pair now trading between 1.3850 and 1.3925, close to its highest levels in several months.
This means 1 US dollar currently buys around 1.39 to 1.40 Canadian dollars.
What’s Driving USD to CAD?
Key factors influencing the exchange rate.
1. Interest Rates
Both the U.S. and Canadian central banks recently cut interest rates.
However, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it may not cut much more soon, while the Bank of Canada turned more cautious, hinting that more rate cuts could come if Canada's economy stays weak.
This gives the US dollar an edge.
2. Economic Performance
The U.S. economy is showing strong numbers, with good job reports and steady growth.
In contrast, Canada's economy is starting to slow, with rising unemployment and shrinking GDP. This weakens the Canadian dollar.
3. Oil Prices
Normally, higher oil prices support the Canadian dollar, but even though oil is stable, it’s not enough to help CAD much due to broader economic issues in Canada.
4. Trade Tensions
Ongoing uncertainty in trade relationships between the U.S. and Canada adds pressure to the Canadian dollar.
What Do the Charts Say?
How technical trends are shaping expectations.
Technically, the USD/CAD pair has been climbing “higher lows,” meaning it makes small dips but keeps going up overall.
It has broken key resistance at 1.3750 and is now testing resistance around 1.3925 and possibly 1.4000, a big, psychological level many traders watch.
If USD/CAD stays above 1.3925, it could move toward 1.4000 and possibly 1.4150–1.4175.
If it falls below 1.3800, the next strong support levels are near 1.3750 and potentially 1.3700.
These technical patterns show continued upward momentum for the USD against the CAD, unless key data changes the trend.
What to Watch Next Month
Important updates that could move the exchange rate.
US and Canadian Jobs Reports: Strong job numbers in either country will influence interest rate outlooks and the exchange rate.
Inflation Data: If U.S. inflation stays high, the Fed may hold off on more cuts, supporting the USD.
Bank Decisions: Any surprise statements or actions from the Federal Reserve or Bank of Canada could shift sentiment quickly.
Risks Ahead
Things that could disrupt the current trend.
False Breakouts: If USD/CAD rises briefly above resistance but falls back sharply, it could trigger a downturn.
Weaker US Data: A slowdown in the US economy or lower inflation could make the Fed more "dovish" (more likely to cut rates), weakening the USD.
Oil Surprises: A sharp rise in oil prices could boost the CAD.
Political or Global Tensions: Sudden global events may strengthen the USD as a "safe" currency, or shake investor confidence overall.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to CAD Abroad
How the exchange rate affects your money transfer.
If you’re sending USD to someone in Canada, this is good news, the current rates mean your US dollars go further.
Just one dollar now buys nearly 1.39 to 1.40 Canadian dollars, more than it did a few months ago.
If the trend continues and reaches levels like 1.4150, you’ll get even more CAD for the same USD.
However, this can change. If the USD weakens or the CAD strengthens unexpectedly due to economic data or policy changes, the rate could drop.
So, if you're planning to send money soon, it may be a good time to do it, or consider locking in the rate through your transfer provider.
Live USD to CAD exchange rates
Converting USD to CAD
If you are planning to send USD to Canada, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most CAD on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in October:
History of the USD to CAD
USD to CAD, also known as the loonie, is a popular forex pair because of the strong business relationship between the two countries.
They both are parts of the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA in 2020. As a result, the two countries do goods trade every year.
The exchange rate is mostly affected by three main factors. First, the actions of the Federal Reserve and BoC. Historically, because of the role of the USD as the global currency reserve, the Fed has more weight compared to the BoC.
Second, the pair is also often impacted by the prices of crude oil. The US is the biggest oil producer while Canada is the fourth. However, in terms of exports, Canada exports most of its oil to the US. Therefore, higher oil prices have often resulted in a stronger Canadian dollar.
| Date | 1 US Dollar in CAD |
|---|---|
| Oct 07, 2025 | 1.395365 CAD |
| Oct 08, 2025 | 1.395525 CAD |
| Oct 09, 2025 | 1.401925 CAD |
| Oct 10, 2025 | 1.401850 CAD |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1.401750 CAD |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 1.399920 CAD |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1.403965 CAD |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1.404550 CAD |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1.404665 CAD |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1.405435 CAD |
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