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USD to CAD Forecast - July 2025

If you're planning to send US dollars (USD) to Canada or Canadian dollars (CAD) abroad in July, here’s a straightforward update to help you make informed decisions.

This forecast focuses on the USD/CAD exchange rate, which is how much 1 US dollar buys in Canadian dollars.

Currently, the US dollar is relatively weak while the Canadian dollar is showing strength. It is currently trading at 1.36044 CAD per USD.

This trend has been in place for several months and is likely to continue into July, though some fluctuations may occur.

Crispus Nyaga
Author 
Crispus Nyaga
Artiom Pucinskij
Editor 
Artiom Pucinskij
5 minutes
July 4th, 2025
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What is likely to happen to USD/CAD in July 2025

Here’s what most analysts are expecting for the coming weeks:

  • The USD/CAD exchange rate is likely to stay under pressure and could drift toward 1.3500 or even 1.3400.

  • Short-term rebounds in the US dollar are possible, especially if incoming U.S. economic data beats expectations.

  • Right now, you will receive fewer Canadian dollars for each US dollar. If your transfer is not urgent, you should wait a little, especially if you're planning to make a large transfer abroad.

  • It's a good time to send CAD to USD if you have a need for it.

Key factors driving the market

Several major economic drivers are influencing the USD/CAD exchange rate this month:

Central bank policies

Monetary policy decisions on both sides of the border are creating diverging trends.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later in 2025 due to slow economic growth and low inflation.

Lower interest rates reduce returns for investors holding US dollars, making the currency less attractive and contributing to a weaker USD.

Also, the Bank of Canada is nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. This relative stability is helping to support the strength of the Canadian dollar.

Weak U.S. economic data

Recent economic data from the U.S. has been underwhelming.

Reports have shown job losses and slowing activity in the services sector. This has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which adds further downward pressure on the dollar.

In contrast, the Canadian economy has performed relatively better, which strengthens the case for a stronger CAD.

Oil prices

Oil prices are a key factor for the Canadian economy.

As a major oil exporter, Canada tends to benefit from stable or rising crude oil prices.

Continued strength in oil markets helps support the Canadian dollar.

Technical picture: What the charts are telling us

For those watching price trends and patterns, here's what the technical analysis suggests:

  • USD/CAD is currently trading near 1.36, the lowest level in eight months. This means 1 US dollar equals roughly 1.36 Canadian dollars (right now, 1 USD will get you 1.36044 CAD).

  • The next key support level is 1.3500. If the rate drops below this level, it could signal further weakness, potentially moving toward 1.3400 or lower.

  • Resistance is in the 1.3650 to 1.3750 range. A break above this range could suggest the beginning of a rebound.

  • The overall trend remains downward unless strong economic data or policy changes support a US dollar recovery.

Is it a good time to convert USD to CAD?

Whether you're sending money from the U.S. to Canada or vice versa, the current trends can affect your transfer value.

Sending money from the U.S. to Canada

  • You'll currently receive fewer Canadian dollars for each US dollar.

  • If the USD weakens further, the value you get may decline even more.

Consider transferring funds sooner or splitting the amount over several smaller transfers to minimize risk.

If you send USD to Canada now, this is how much you will get:

USDCAD Price
1 USD1.36
5 USD6.80
10 USD13.60
50 USD68.02
100 USD136.04
1000 USD1360.44
10000 USD13604.40
50000 USD68022.00
100000 USD136044.00
200000 USD272088.00
500000 USD680220.00
1000000 USD1360440.00
CADUSD Price
1 CAD0.74
5 CAD3.68
10 CAD7.35
50 CAD36.75
100 CAD73.50
1000 CAD735.04
10000 CAD7350.43
50000 CAD36752.15
100000 CAD73504.30
200000 CAD147008.60
500000 CAD367521.50
1000000 CAD735043.00

Sending money from Canada to the U.S.

  • The stronger Canadian dollar means your money goes further in the U.S.

  • The Canadian dollar could strengthen a bit more if current trends persist.

Now may be a favorable time to convert CAD to USD if you have upcoming transfer needs.

Risks to watch

Several external risks could affect the exchange rate outlook and shift the trend unexpectedly:

  • U.S. economic reports: A stronger-than-expected job market or inflation data could delay rate cuts and strengthen the US dollar.

  • Oil prices: A sharp drop in oil prices could weaken the Canadian dollar.

  • Federal Reserve policy: If the Fed surprises markets by slowing or pausing its rate-cut path, the USD may rebound temporarily.

Live USD to CAD exchange rates

Mid-market Rate
1 
=
1.360440 
CAD
Mid-market rate at: 19:04 UTC
USD/CAD Median: 1.363017 Low: 1.357435 High: 1.371050

Converting USD to CAD

If you are planning to send USD to Canada, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most CAD on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

Money transfer company

USD/CAD exchange rate

USD/CAD fee

USD/CAD transfer time

CAD received

Wise (Best USD/CAD rate)

1.3571 USD/CAD

26.9

within a week

9,462.85

Key Currency (Lowest Fee)

1.3536 USD/CAD

0

minutes - 3 days

9,474.91

Key Currency (Overall cheapest)

1.3536 USD/CAD

0

minutes - 3 days

9,474.91

Currencyflow (Fastest Option)

1.3534 USD/CAD

0

minutes - 24 hours

9,473.96

*Based on our data of $7,000 transfer from the USA to Canada in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the USD to CAD

USD to CAD, also known as the loonie, is a popular forex pair because of the strong business relationship between the two countries.

They both are parts of the United States, Mexico, and Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA in 2020. As a result, the two countries do goods trade every year.

The exchange rate is mostly affected by three main factors. First, the actions of the Federal Reserve and BoC. Historically, because of the role of the USD as the global currency reserve, the Fed has more weight compared to the BoC.

Second, the pair is also often impacted by the prices of crude oil. The US is the biggest oil producer while Canada is the fourth. However, in terms of exports, Canada exports most of its oil to the US. Therefore, higher oil prices have often resulted in a stronger Canadian dollar.

Date1 US Dollar in CAD
Jun 25, 20251.371260 CAD
Jun 26, 20251.364370 CAD
Jun 27, 20251.370950 CAD
Jun 28, 20251.371050 CAD
Jun 29, 20251.368245 CAD
Jun 30, 20251.360625 CAD
Jul 01, 20251.364501 CAD
Jul 02, 20251.358825 CAD
Jul 03, 20251.357435 CAD
Jul 04, 20251.360440 CAD
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Contributors

Crispus Nyaga
Crispus Nyaga is a distinguished financial analyst with over nine years of industry experience, specializing in the stock market, forex, equities, and commodities. His insightful analysis has been featured by prominent financial brands, showcasing his deep understanding of market dynamics. As an active trader managing his family's investments, Crispus combines practical trading acumen with analytical expertise.
Artiom Pucinskij
Artiom Pucinskij is a seasoned financial content strategist who holds an impressive background in marketing from the University of Portsmouth. With years of dedicated experience in the personal finance and remittance sectors, Artiom has become an integral part of MoneyTransfers.com's growth.
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