GBP to USD Forecast - July 2025

Current price levels

Let’s take a look at what the GBP/USD exchange rate is doing right now.

• The pound is currently trading between $1.3430 and $1.3750.

• Support (or the floor) sits at $1.3430 to $1.3450. If the pound drops here and stabilizes, it may rebound.

• Resistance (or the ceiling) lies between $1.36 and $1.3750. The pound has struggled to break above this range.

• If GBP breaks above $1.3750, it could move toward $1.38 or even $1.40.

• If it falls below $1.3430, it might decline further to around $1.33 or lower.

Why the pound is moving

Here are the key forces influencing the pound this month:

Weak UK economy

The underlying UK economic conditions are not particularly strong.

• Economic growth remains sluggish.

• The job market is showing signs of strain.

• Political uncertainty surrounding the Labour Party and fiscal plans is affecting investor confidence.

• Inflation is easing, which is good for households but may prompt interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.

Bank of England policy

The central bank’s decisions are playing a major role.

• The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady for now.

• However, there’s a chance rate cuts may begin later this year.

• Lower rates typically reduce a currency's appeal to investors, which can put downward pressure on the pound.

Weak U.S. dollar

The dollar’s recent slide is helping make the pound appear stronger.

• Poor U.S. economic data, especially on jobs and inflation, is weighing on the dollar.

• This makes the pound look better by comparison, but the effect could reverse quickly if the U.S. economy improves.

Technical patterns

Chart watchers are seeing signs of a short-term uptrend.

• GBP/USD appears to be forming a pattern known as a “cup and handle,” which sometimes indicates a move higher.

• If this holds, GBP could push toward $1.38 or even $1.40.

• But if the price breaks below support levels (especially $1.3450), that trend may quickly reverse.

Potential risks to watch

A few external risks could cause unexpected movement in the pound’s value.

• Major economic announcements from the U.S., such as job reports or inflation data, could strengthen the dollar and drag down GBP.

• Political instability in the UK may lower confidence in the pound and introduce volatility.

• Surprise moves by central banks, such as the Bank of England or the U.S. Federal Reserve, could trigger sudden changes in exchange rates.

Is it a good time to convert GBP to USD?

If you're sending GBP abroad (such as to the U.S. or another country linked to the U.S. dollar), here’s how to think about timing:

• If the pound is trading near $1.36 to $1.3750, now may be a good time to send, as this is the higher end of the recent range.

• If the pound weakens, especially if it drops below $1.34, you'll get less foreign currency for your money.

• You may want to split your transfer into smaller amounts over the next few weeks to take advantage of potential short-term spikes above $1.36.

Key dates to watch

Pay attention to the release of July’s U.S. job data and UK inflation numbers. These announcements are likely to influence the next major move in the exchange rate.

Live GBP to USD exchange rates

Converting GBP to USD

If you are planning to send GBP to USA, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most USD on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of £6,000 transfer from the GBP to the USA in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the GBP to USD

The GBP/USD forex exchange rate has had a long history because of the strong business and social ties between the United States and the United Kingdom. The British pound was created in 1694 after the UK formed the Bank of England (BoE) while the US dollar was created in 1794.

The GBP/USD currency pair was nicknamed the cable because of the transatlantic cables that connected the UK and the US. These cables were connected to submarines, which relayed the exchange rate between the two currencies.

For a long time, the decline of the British economy on the global stage has witnessed a fall in its market share. This decline accelerated when the UK gave up many of its colonial countries in Europe, Asia, and South America. At the same time, this decline coincided with the strong performance of the United States as a superpower.

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