USD to AUD Forecast - July 2025

The Australian dollar (AUD) has been showing signs of strength against the U.S. dollar (USD), and analysts believe it may continue to gain slightly in the short term.

That means if you’re sending money to Australia, your USD may not go as far as it did earlier this year.

However, the trend isn't entirely one-directional.

The exchange rate has been fluctuating between approximately $0.64 and $0.66 and could trend a bit higher if current momentum continues.

What’s driving the USD to AUD rate?

Here are the main factors affecting this currency pair:

Weaker U.S. dollar supports AUD

• U.S. inflation is slowing down, and recent economic data has been underwhelming.

• Markets are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year.

• Political uncertainty and high government spending are also contributing to USD weakness.

A weaker dollar generally boosts the value of the Australian dollar in this pairing.

Mixed economic signals in Australia

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut interest rates in July, which would typically weaken the AUD.

• However, stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data (important for Australia’s exports) is helping support the AUD.

• Technical trading patterns are also giving the AUD a modest boost.

Global sentiment and risk appetite

• Optimism in global markets, such as easing geopolitical tensions and strong stock market performance, tends to support risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD.

Technical patterns to watch

Technical analysts see a potential bullish trend forming for AUD/USD, but the pair must break through key resistance levels first.

• Support level (floor): Around $0.64 - if AUD falls below this, it may weaken further.

• Resistance levels (ceiling):

  • $0.6550 - currently being tested

  • $0.6600 - a break above this could open the door to $0.67

If the AUD climbs above these resistance points, it will reduce the number of Australian dollars you get per U.S. dollar.

Key events to watch this month

• June 19: Australian jobs report - a weak report may support rate cut expectations and put downward pressure on the AUD.

• U.S. economic data: Watch for inflation and jobs data. Weak results could fuel expectations of U.S. rate cuts, weakening the USD.

Is it a good time to convert USD to AUD?

If you're sending USD to Australia:

The AUD is gaining strength, meaning your USD may buy fewer Australian dollars.

If the trend continues and AUD/USD moves above $0.66, it could be worth locking in a rate soon rather than waiting.

If you're waiting for a better rate:

You’ll want to monitor U.S. inflation and interest rate expectations. Positive surprises in the U.S. economy could boost the dollar.

However, if the AUD continues rising, waiting could work against you.

Live USD to AUD exchange rates

Converting USD to AUD

If you are planning to send USD to Australia, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most AUD on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of $7,000 transfer from the USA to Australia in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the USD to AUD pair

The US and Australia have had a friendly relationship and have always done trading with each other. In the past, the US dollar and the Australian pound were used for trading. However, in February, Australia moved from the pound and introduced the Australian dollar, commonly known as the AUD. The ISO standard for the Australian dollar and the US dollar is AUD/USD.

The USD/AUD pair has had its lows and downs over the years. Between 1980 and 2001, the pair jumped by 148% as it moved from a low of 0.8476 to a high of 2.10. It then declined by ~56% from its highest level in 2001 to a low of 0.9101 in August 2011. Since then, the pair has been in an overall upward trend. It has risen by about 15% in the past five years.

The Australian dollar is usually affected by a number of factors. First, it is affected by the overall commodity prices since Australia is well-known for its vast natural resources, which include coal, copper, and iron ore.

Second, the Chinese economy plays a huge role in the Australian economy because of the vast volume of trade that happens between the two countries. According to Lowy Institute, China buys more than two-thirds of all commodities that Australia produces.

Further, like other currency pairs, USD/AUD pair reacts to geopolitics and actions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

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