GBP to EUR Forecast - July 2025

What’s causing the pound to weaken?

Here are the key drivers behind the pound’s recent decline:

Weak UK economy

The UK economy shrank by 0.3% in April, and unemployment is rising. This economic slowdown is making investors cautious about the country's outlook.

Interest rate cuts expected

Due to poor performance, the Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates in the near future.Lower interest rates tend to reduce investor demand for a currency, weakening its value.

Government spending and debt concerns

Investors are uneasy about increased UK government spending without clear plans to fund it.Concerns include rising welfare costs, defense budgets, and the potential for future tax hikes, all of which could further slow economic growth.

The euro is more stable by comparison

While the eurozone has its own risks (such as inflation uncertainty and slower growth), the euro is currently seen as more stable.The European Central Bank has already lowered rates slightly but is not expected to cut aggressively, which helps support the euro.

Key levels to watch

If you’re watching the market closely, here are the most relevant exchange rate levels for GBP/EUR:

• Support (potential floor): 1.1600If the pound falls below this, it could continue to weaken.

• Resistance (potential ceiling): 1.1775 and 1.1900If the pound rises above these levels, it may signal a temporary recovery.

Right now, the overall trend suggests further pressure on the pound unless stronger UK data emerges.

Technical trend

Charts for EUR/GBP (the reverse of GBP/EUR) are showing a bullish pattern, meaning more euro strength and continued pound weakness may lie ahead.Unless major economic surprises occur, the technical setup favors further downside for GBP.

What to expect over the next month

Looking ahead to the rest of July:

• The pound is likely to remain weak, hovering between 1.16 and 1.175 GBP/EUR.

• If UK data continues to disappoint and the Bank of England cuts rates before September, the pound could slip toward 1.15.

• A rebound above 1.18 is less likely unless there’s a surprise improvement in inflation or job figures.

• Political instability in the UK or global developments (like oil prices or geopolitical tensions) could add to volatility.

Is it a good time to convert GBP to EUR?

Depending on your situation, here’s how to navigate the current exchange rate trends:

If you need to send euros from the UK soon

Consider acting now or locking in your rate. The pound may weaken further, meaning you'll get fewer euros later.

If you're sending GBP from Europe (converting euros to pounds)

You may benefit by waiting. If the pound drops further, your euros will buy more.

Live GBP/EUR exchange rates

Converting GBP to EUR

If you are planning to send GBP to the EU, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most EUR on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of £6,000 transfer from the UK to Germany (EUR) in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the GBP to EUR pair

The UK and the European Union have had a long historical relationship. The UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973 which was a key part of the formation of the European Union (EU) in 1993.

However, the UK was among a group of countries like Poland, Romania, and Sweden that failed to sign to the single currency. Their idea was that they needed their central banks to manage the movements of their local currency.

Historically, the euro has been criticized for restricting the independence of sovereign countries. For example, it is common for the ECB to hike interest rates when big countries like Germany and France are doing well while smaller ones are struggling.

The euro has outperformed the British pound over the years because of its role as the second-biggest economy in the world. The EU has a GDP of over $16 trillion, making it smaller than the US $23 trillion.

In addition, the GBP/USD has dropped because of the impacts of Brexit, which introduced some trade barriers between the UK and the EU. The GBP to EUR exchange rate has crashed by ~39% from its peak in 1999.

Our handy, modern currency app lets you:

• Instantly convert 25,000+ currency pairs

• Compare live transfer deals

• Get reviews & insights

Our app is free for mobiles and tablets, with no intrusive ads or in-app purchases.