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What is likely to happen to GBP/EUR in October 2025
The Pound is currently under slight pressure against the Euro and may lose more ground this month.
Better-than-expected European economic performance and concerns about UK fiscal policy are the main reasons.
If you're looking to convert pounds to Euros, acting sooner may help you lock in a better rate before potential declines.
GBP to EUR: Where It Stands
The GBP to EUR exchange rate is currently hovering around 1.15, having seen some ups and downs in recent weeks. Neither currency has made a strong move, but subtle shifts point to possible changes ahead in the next month.
What’s Driving GBP to EUR?
Several economic and political factors are pushing the Pound and Euro in different directions:
1. Eurozone Strength
The Euro is gaining support thanks to solid economic signals from Europe, especially improved confidence and low unemployment, at 6.2%. Investors are less worried about the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates soon.
2. UK Fiscal Concerns
While UK retail sales were better than expected recently, there are serious worries about government debt and future tax hikes. This is making investors nervous about the Pound's long-term strength.
3. Manufacturing Weakness in the UK
UK manufacturing has been shrinking for almost a year. Meanwhile, parts of Europe are showing signs of recovery based on recent economic activity.
4. U.S. Dollar Impact
The U.S. dollar has been weakening due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. A weaker dollar tends to lift the Euro more than the Pound, giving the Euro an extra boost.
What Do the Charts Say?
From a technical perspective (how traders view trends on price charts):
Key support levels for the EUR/GBP are around 0.8632 and 0.8670. If the Euro weakens below these levels, the Pound could gain.
Resistance levels (where the Euro might struggle to rise further) are near 0.8766. If the Euro breaks past this level, the Pound could weaken more.
The Pound is struggling to make a strong comeback. On longer-term charts, the Euro looks more likely to continue rising.
In simple terms, the Euro is showing signs of climbing further against the Pound, unless economic news drastically changes.
What to Watch in October 2025
Here’s what could shake things up in the coming weeks:
Eurozone Inflation Data: If inflation weakens, talk of ECB rate cuts could return, which might weaken the Euro.
UK Autumn Budget Talk: As we get closer to the November budget, concerns about UK tax hikes or government spending could put pressure on the Pound.
Political News in France or the UK: Political instability in either region could affect the currency value.
Central Bank Commentary: Any updates from the Bank of England or the ECB can significantly move the exchange rate.
Risks Ahead
There are a few things that could unexpectedly change the outlook:
UK Government Uncertainty: Issues around borrowing, debt, or tax changes can lower investor confidence in the Pound.
Sudden Shifts in ECB Policy: If inflation drops further than expected, the ECB might change its tune about rate cuts sooner.
Global Risk Sentiment: A worldwide downturn or shock event could drive demand for safer currencies like the Euro, pressuring the Pound further.
What This Means If You’re Sending GBP to EUR Abroad
If you're planning to send British pounds to Euros in the next month, here's the bottom line:
Rates may get slightly worse for Pound holders if the European currency keeps getting stronger.
Right now, 1 Pound gets you around €1.15. But if current trends continue, that could drop closer to €1.13 or lower in the next few weeks.
If the Pound weakens further, it means you'll get fewer Euros for the same amount of pounds. For example, £1,000 today gets you roughly €1,150. Next month, it could be just €1,130 or less.
Consider sending money sooner rather than later, especially if you're watching for the best possible rate.
Live GBP/EUR exchange rates
Converting GBP to EUR
If you are planning to send GBP to the EU, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most EUR on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in October:
History of the GBP to EUR pair
The UK and the European Union have had a long historical relationship. The UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973 which was a key part of the formation of the European Union (EU) in 1993.
However, the UK was among a group of countries like Poland, Romania, and Sweden that failed to sign to the single currency. Their idea was that they needed their central banks to manage the movements of their local currency.
Historically, the euro has been criticized for restricting the independence of sovereign countries. For example, it is common for the ECB to hike interest rates when big countries like Germany and France are doing well while smaller ones are struggling.
The euro has outperformed the British pound over the years because of its role as the second-biggest economy in the world. The EU has a GDP of over $16 trillion, making it smaller than the US $23 trillion.
In addition, the GBP/USD has dropped because of the impacts of Brexit, which introduced some trade barriers between the UK and the EU. The GBP to EUR exchange rate has crashed by ~39% from its peak in 1999.
| Date | 1 Pound Sterling in EUR |
|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2025 | 1.145221 EUR |
| Sep 27, 2025 | 1.147656 EUR |
| Sep 28, 2025 | 1.145275 EUR |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 1.145354 EUR |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 1.145512 EUR |
| Oct 01, 2025 | 1.148799 EUR |
| Oct 02, 2025 | 1.146824 EUR |
| Oct 03, 2025 | 1.147842 EUR |
| Oct 04, 2025 | 1.155720 EUR |
| Oct 05, 2025 | 1.146573 EUR |
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