USD to EUR Forecast - July 2025

Sending dollars to Europe in July 2025 may be slightly more expensive than earlier this year.

The euro is on a strong footing due to signs of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Unless there’s a major surprise, like strong U.S. data or a global crisis, this trend could continue.

If you’re planning a transfer, consider acting sooner or locking in your rate to avoid paying more later.

Why this is happening to the USD/EUR

Several factors are pushing the euro higher and the dollar lower.

Slowing U.S. inflation and expected interest rate cuts

Recent reports show that inflation in the U.S. is cooling down.

As a result, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, possibly as early as September.

Lower interest rates usually make the dollar less attractive to investors, which weakens the currency.

The euro appears more stable by comparison

While the eurozone economy isn’t especially strong, the European Central Bank is likely to take a more cautious approach to future rate cuts.

That relative stability makes the euro more appealing to global investors.

Political risk in the U.S.

Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and possible tariffs later this year, especially during an election cycle, is making the dollar less attractive.

Concerns over political leadership and economic direction are also weighing on investor confidence.

Global risk factors favor the euro

Rising tensions in the Middle East and fragile US-China relations are adding to market unease.

In this environment, some investors are shifting their funds into euros and other alternatives to the U.S. dollar.

What levels to watch

If you’re keeping an eye on the EUR/USD exchange rate, here are the key price levels:

• Support levels (if the euro weakens slightly): 1.1660 and 1.1570, if EUR/USD drops below these, the euro may weaken a bit, meaning you could get slightly more euros per dollar.

• Resistance levels (if the euro gains more strength): 1.1730, 1.1760, and possibly 1.1800, if EUR/USD breaks above these, the dollar will likely buy even fewer euros.

What could reverse this?

While the outlook favors the euro, a few scenarios could strengthen the dollar again.

• If the Federal Reserve signals that it is holding off on rate cuts or takes a more aggressive stance, the dollar might temporarily rebound.

• A major global crisis could also prompt a return to the U.S. dollar as a “safe haven.”

• Upcoming U.S. data and central bank announcements later in July could still shift the market in either direction.

Is it a good time to convert USD to EUR?

Here’s how to approach transfers from the U.S. to Europe in the current climate:

• If you need to send dollars in July, consider doing it sooner rather than later.

• You might want to lock in today’s rate if your bank or transfer service allows, especially if the euro continues to rise.

• Pay close attention to U.S. inflation data and any comments from the Fed. These can directly impact the value of the dollar.

Live USD to EUR exchange rates

Converting USD to EUR

If you are planning to send USD to EUR, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most EUR on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of $7,000 transfer from the USA to Spain in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the USD to EUR

Europe and the United States always had close economic and social ties which were done using the US dollar and local currencies for a long time. Germany had Deutsche Mark while France had the franc and Italy had the lira, all these changed on January 1999 when the European Union introduced using a common currency known as the euro.

The euro currency was then officially launched on January 1, 2002. 20 of the 27 EU member countries use the euro.

In most cases, the USD and euro exchange rate is identified as per the ISO standard- EUR/USD. Over the years, the performance of the pair has favored the US dollar because of the overall strength of the American economy and the fact that the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. In 2022, the EUR/USD price crashed below the parity level for the first time in two decades.

The USD to EUR is the most liquid currency pair internationally because of the volume of trade between the US and Europe. Euro is often seen as a safe currency, which makes it the second-biggest reserve currency in the world. As shown below, the USD to EUR price has generally been in a strong bullish trend since the 2008/9 financial crisis.

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