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What is likely to happen to USD/EUR in November 2025
The U.S. dollar has grown stronger, and the euro has weakened due to central bank signals, European political risk, and weak eurozone data.
The technical trend favors continued euro weakness unless it can move above 1.1686.
Support levels to watch include 1.1505 and 1.1392. Rallies may pause around 1.1620 to 1.1686.
If you're sending U.S. dollars to Europe, now may be an ideal time before any euro recovery.
USD to EUR: Where It Stands
The USD to EUR exchange rate is currently leaning in favor of the U.S. dollar.
After a short-lived rise earlier this year, the euro has slipped to its lowest levels in about two months, trading near 1.154.
This means one U.S. dollar gets you more euros than it did recently.
What’s Driving USD to EUR?
Several major forces are influencing the direction of the exchange rate. The U.S. dollar is gaining strength again for a few reasons:
The U.S. Federal Reserve is being cautious about lowering interest rates too soon. Unlike what many expected, the Fed has not cut rates yet and says it will wait until inflation drops closer to its 2% goal. Higher U.S. interest rates tend to boost the value of the dollar.
Meanwhile, political uncertainty in France and weaker-than-expected economic data from Germany have made the euro less attractive to investors.
Even though some expect the Fed to start lowering rates later this year, ongoing concerns around government spending, economic performance, and geopolitics continue to support the dollar’s short-term strength.
What Do the Charts Say?
From a technical perspective (based on price movement patterns), the USD to EUR trend looks bearish for the euro.
A clear technical pattern called a "rising wedge" has broken down, which typically signals more weakness ahead for the euro.
Key levels traders are watching:
Resistance (where the rate may struggle to go higher): around 1.1620, 1.1645, and especially near 1.1686.
Support (price levels that may act like a floor): 1.1540 (current zone), then 1.1505 and possibly 1.1392 if selling continues.
To move higher in a meaningful way, the euro must break past 1.1686, which has proven difficult recently.
What to Watch in Next Month
Over the next month, keep an eye on:
U.S. inflation data: If inflation stays high, the Fed is more likely to keep rates up, strengthening the dollar.
Eurozone data (especially about jobs and consumer activity): Weak reports could keep pressure on the euro.
Commentary from central bankers (especially the Fed and European Central Bank): Any hint of policy changes could shift the market quickly.
Resolution or escalation of U.S. or European political situations (like the U.S. government shutdown or French instability).
If U.S. data weakens or the eurozone surprises with stronger-than-expected reports, the euro might bounce. Otherwise, the current pressure may continue.
Risks Ahead
If U.S. inflation heats up again, the Fed might delay cuts longer than expected. That could push the dollar even higher.
Political flare-ups in the EU, especially France, might scare investors and make the euro weaker.
Continuing economic underperformance in Europe (e.g., weak German factory orders) could also drag the euro further down.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to EUR Abroad
In simple terms: this is still a good time to send money from the U.S. to Europe compared to earlier this year.
Since the dollar has recently strengthened, your U.S. dollars now buy more euros than they did a couple of months ago.
If you can transfer while the exchange rate is near or below 1.155, you’ll likely get a better deal than if the euro bounces back in the coming weeks.
Watch for 1.1686 as a key level: if it breaks above that, the euro may start to recover, and your dollars could be worth less in euros.
Live USD to EUR exchange rates
Converting USD to EUR
If you are planning to send USD to EUR, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most EUR on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in November:
History of the USD to EUR
Europe and the United States always had close economic and social ties which were done using the US dollar and local currencies for a long time.
Germany had Deutsche Mark while France had the franc and Italy had the lira, all these changed on January 1999 when the European Union introduced using a common currency known as the euro.
The euro currency was then officially launched on January 1, 2002. 20 of the 27 EU member countries use the euro.
In most cases, the USD and euro exchange rate is identified as per the ISO standard- EUR/USD.
Over the years, the performance of the pair has favored the US dollar because of the overall strength of the American economy and the fact that the dollar is the reserve currency of the world.
In 2022, the EUR/USD price crashed below the parity level for the first time in two decades.
The USD to EUR is the most liquid currency pair internationally because of the volume of trade between the US and Europe.
Euro is often seen as a safe currency, which makes it the second-biggest reserve currency in the world.
As shown below, the USD to EUR price has generally been in a strong bullish trend since the 2008/9 financial crisis.
| Date | 1 US Dollar in EUR |
|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2025 | 0.866600 EUR |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 0.866990 EUR |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 0.868404 EUR |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 0.868404 EUR |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 0.869015 EUR |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 0.868102 EUR |
| Nov 25, 2025 | 0.864720 EUR |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 0.861940 EUR |
| Nov 27, 2025 | 0.862110 EUR |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 0.861970 EUR |
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