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What is likely to happen to USD/EUR in October 2025
The Euro is gaining strength thanks to expected U.S. rate cuts, weak U.S. job data, and solid technical patterns.
If the 1.1750 level is broken this month, the Euro could rise further toward 1.1830 or more.
Those sending USD to Europe may want to act soon, as delaying could mean receiving fewer Euros for each dollar if trends continue.
Keep an eye on U.S. inflation and job numbers in mid-September, they are likely to decide the next big move.
USD to EUR: Where It Stands
The USD to EUR exchange rate is currently around 1.1735, meaning that one U.S. dollar buys about 1.17 Euros.
That's close to the highest level in a month, showing that the Euro has been gaining strength recently as the U.S. dollar weakens.
What’s Driving USD to EUR?
Key factors shifting this exchange rate:
1. Interest Rate Expectations
The U.S. central bank (the Federal Reserve) is expected to cut interest rates in September due to slowing job growth and weak inflation.
In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep rates steady for now.
Lower interest rates in the U.S. mean the dollar is less attractive to investors, weakening it against the Euro.
2. Political and Legal Uncertainty in the U.S.
Issues like debates over Fed independence, tariff policies, and rising political risks make investors nervous about holding U.S. dollars.
3. Economic Data
Weak U.S. job and inflation reports have added to the pressure on the USD, while even mildly positive data from Europe has helped the Euro hold firm.
4. Historical Trends
September tends to be a good month for the Euro based on seasonal patterns.
That could add extra support for the Euro in the short term.
What Do the Charts Say?
From a technical perspective (looking at patterns on price charts):
The Euro has broken out of a long-standing trading range and is moving upward in a “rising channel.” This suggests there may be more upside potential.
Important resistance (price ceilings where gains might pause) can be found at 1.1750, 1.1790, and 1.1830. If the price moves above these levels, it might continue to rise.
Key support (price floors where losses might slow or stop) levels include 1.1700, 1.1650, and 1.1590. If the exchange rate drops below these, it may signal a reversal lower.
What to Watch Next Month
Several events and data releases could swing the USD to EUR rate in either direction in the next 30 days:
U.S. Inflation and Jobs Data: These are released in mid-September. If inflation and job numbers come in weak, the USD could slip further, strengthening the Euro.
ECB Meeting: Any surprises or changes in tone from the European Central Bank may also influence exchange rates.
Central Bank Decisions: Market traders will watch closely to see how quickly the U.S. and Europe adjust interest rates.
Political News: Any new issues in the U.S., especially around the Federal Reserve or trade policy, could lead to sharp USD moves.
Risks Ahead
Some factors could shift the outlook:
If U.S. job and inflation data surprise on the upside, the USD could rebound, weakening the EUR.
Eurozone economic data is still soft. If it worsens, the Euro might lose ground even if the dollar is under pressure.
Unexpected central bank policy changes or geopolitical developments (like trade conflicts or political shocks) may create extra volatility.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to EUR Abroad
In simple terms, the Euro is becoming stronger, and the dollar is weakening. If you’re sending U.S. dollars to Europe, you may receive fewer Euros if these trends continue over the next month.
If the Euro keeps rising and breaks above 1.1750 and 1.1830, a U.S. dollar could buy even fewer Euros in the coming weeks.
Consider sending larger amounts sooner rather than later to lock in current rates if this upward EUR trend continues.
Track updates from the Fed and ECB, as well as U.S. data releases, as these could shift rates quickly.
Live USD to EUR exchange rates
Converting USD to EUR
If you are planning to send USD to EUR, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most EUR on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in October:
History of the USD to EUR
Europe and the United States always had close economic and social ties which were done using the US dollar and local currencies for a long time.
Germany had Deutsche Mark while France had the franc and Italy had the lira, all these changed on January 1999 when the European Union introduced using a common currency known as the euro.
The euro currency was then officially launched on January 1, 2002. 20 of the 27 EU member countries use the euro.
In most cases, the USD and euro exchange rate is identified as per the ISO standard- EUR/USD.
Over the years, the performance of the pair has favored the US dollar because of the overall strength of the American economy and the fact that the dollar is the reserve currency of the world.
In 2022, the EUR/USD price crashed below the parity level for the first time in two decades.
The USD to EUR is the most liquid currency pair internationally because of the volume of trade between the US and Europe.
Euro is often seen as a safe currency, which makes it the second-biggest reserve currency in the world.
As shown below, the USD to EUR price has generally been in a strong bullish trend since the 2008/9 financial crisis.
| Date | 1 US Dollar in EUR |
|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 0.860704 EUR |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 0.861920 EUR |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 0.864580 EUR |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 0.861930 EUR |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 0.858660 EUR |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 0.854750 EUR |
| Oct 17, 2025 | 0.857604 EUR |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 0.857604 EUR |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 0.857850 EUR |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 0.857210 EUR |
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