USD to PHP Forecast - July 2025

Where we are now: USD/PHP around ₱56.20–₱56.40

The Philippine peso recently fell to its weakest level in more than 10 weeks, closing near ₱56.41 per U.S. dollar.

It lost about 2.6% during June, the worst performance among major Asian currencies for the month.

A weaker peso means people receiving remittances in the Philippines get more pesos per dollar, which is good for senders.

However, it can also drive up local prices, especially for imported goods like fuel and food.

What’s driving the peso right now?

Here are the key forces influencing the exchange rate between USD and PHP:

High oil prices

The biggest factor weighing on the peso is the cost of oil.

The Philippines imports most of its oil, so when prices rise, the country spends more U.S. dollars, which weakens the peso.

Right now, oil prices are high due to tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Israel and Iran.

This situation doesn’t look likely to change soon, so pressure on the peso may continue.

Actions from the Philippine central bank

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may cut interest rates soon to support economic growth.

However, lower interest rates make local investments less appealing to foreign investors, which can further weaken the peso.

The BSP has said it won’t aggressively defend the peso unless inflation becomes a major concern.

That means we’re unlikely to see intervention unless things deteriorate significantly.

The role of the U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar has been strong recently, supported by high interest rates and global uncertainty, both of which make it a “safe haven” for investors.

That said, there is some speculation about possible U.S. rate cuts later in the year.

If and when that happens, the dollar could weaken slightly, giving the peso a chance to recover. But those changes aren’t expected to show up in July.

Key technical levels to watch

Understanding where the exchange rate might move next helps when deciding on the timing for a transfer.

• Resistance: Around ₱56.80 - this is where the peso has struggled the most. If the dollar breaks past this level, it could climb to ₱57 or even ₱59.

• Support: Near ₱55.50 - if the peso strengthens, this is a key level it may return to, especially if oil prices drop or investor confidence improves.

Is it a good time to convert USD to PHP?

Whether you’re sending money soon or waiting for better rates, here’s how to think about your timing:

• A good time to send money: The current exchange rate favors senders. You’ll get more pesos for every dollar compared to earlier this year.

• Consider acting soon: With high oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar, the peso may stay weak through July. If oil prices fall or U.S. rate cuts seem more likely, the exchange rate could shift quickly.

• Watch key drivers: Keep an eye on oil prices, announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and any changes in Philippine central bank policy; all of these affect the USD/PHP rate.

Live USD to PHP exchange rates

Converting USD to PHP

If you are planning to send USD to the Philippines, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most PHP on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of $10,000 transfer from the USA to the Philippines in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the USD/PHP pair

The US and the Philippines have a long economic and social relationship. After going through a major war between 1899 and 1902, the two countries maintained a cordial relationship over the years and do trade worth billions of dollars.

According to the Trade Department, the Philippines is the 31st goods trading partner of the US, with a total volume being over $18 billion. The USD/PHP cross is classified as a minor pair since the Philippines is not classified as a developed country.

The USD to PHP pair has been traded for many years; however, the Philippine Peso became a free-floating currency in 1993. At the time, the USD/PHP exchange rate was trading at 26.46. The pair has been on an upward trajectory since then and reached a high of 55.9 in 2023.

In other words, the Philippine Peso has crashed by over 100% since 1993 as the dollar dominance has gained. Between its lowest and highest points, the pair has jumped by 151%.

As shown above, the Philippine Peso had a strong run between 2005 and 2008, at the time of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the USD/PHP pair crashed to ~40.

Since then, the pair has done well and has risen by over 46%. This happened because many investors and businesses moved to the US dollar and other foreign currencies like the euro and Swiss franc.

It then jumped during the Covid-19 pandemic as jitters spread in the emerging market and the Philippines economy plunged to $361.75 billion. The economy expanded to $394 billion in 2022 and is expected to remain stable.

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