USD to MXN Forecast - December 2025
If you're planning to send U.S. dollars to Mexico and receive Mexican pesos (MXN), here’s a straightforward look at what’s happening in the currency market and what you can expect in the weeks ahead.
It is currently trading at 18.205039.
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What is likely to happen to USD/MXN in December 2025
USD to MXN is likely to stay under pressure, with a possible move toward 18.00 if support breaks. Only a rise above 18.80 would change the trend. For those sending money to Mexico, current conditions suggest acting sooner may secure a better rate.
USD to MXN: Where It Stands
USD to MXN remains under pressure, trading near the low end of its recent range between 18.20 and 18.50. The overall trend continues to favor a stronger peso, with the pair repeatedly testing support near 18.20 and even dipping below it at times. Rallies toward 18.50 have consistently struggled.
What’s Driving USD to MXN?
The main reason the peso is strong is Mexico’s much higher interest rates compared to the United States.
Mexico’s benchmark rate sits around 7.25 percent, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates. This wide gap makes Mexican assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for pesos.
Strong Mexican exports and steady foreign investment linked to nearshoring continue to support peso strength.
On the U.S. side, the dollar has been weaker because markets expect more Fed rate cuts in 2025. Any hints of extra cuts usually push USD to MXN lower.
The only major upside risk for the dollar is if Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, cuts rates faster than expected, which would shrink the yield advantage that currently benefits the peso.
What Do the Charts Say?
The charts show a clear downward trend for USD to MXN.
Key support levels: 18.30, 18.22, 18.20, and then 18.00. If 18.20 breaks cleanly, the price could slide toward 18.00.
Key resistance levels: 18.50, 18.60, and a major ceiling at 18.80. Only a move above 18.75 to 18.80 would point to a possible trend change.
The pattern suggests sellers step in every time the pair tries to rise.
What to Watch in December 2025
The biggest driver will be the next Federal Reserve meeting and the tone from Chair Powell. Even a small hint of deeper 2026 rate cuts could push USD to MXN lower.
Watch Banxico too. If they suggest faster rate cuts, the peso could weaken and USD to MXN may climb.
Also keep an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index. A rebound in the dollar could briefly lift USD to MXN.
Risks Ahead
Key things that could shift the outlook quickly.
Faster than expected rate cuts in Mexico.
A strong rebound in the U.S. dollar.
Political tensions or protests in Mexico that shake investor confidence.
Sudden global risk aversion, which usually favors the U.S. dollar.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to MXN Abroad
If you are sending U.S. dollars to Mexico, the trend is currently in your favor. A stronger peso means you get fewer pesos for your dollars, but because the peso is strong and USD to MXN is falling, it may be better to send sooner rather than later. If the pair drops toward 18.00, your dollars will convert into even fewer pesos.
However, if Banxico cuts rates unexpectedly, USD to MXN could rise, giving you a slightly better rate. This is less likely but worth watching.
Live USD to MXN exchange rates
Converting USD to MXN
If you are planning to send USD to Mexico, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most MXN on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in December:
History of the USD to MXN
The USD/MXN cross has been around for decades because of the close geographical and economic relationship between the United States (US) and Mexico.
Mexico started using the Peso during its colonial period while the US dollar was introduced in 1862.
For the most part, the Mexican Peso has tumbled against the US dollar because of the strength of the American economy.
Data shows that the USD to MXN pair was trading at 9.60 on average in 2002. It then surged to a record high of 25.35 in 2020, which is equivalent to a 168% increase.
There is no denying the fact that people holding assets in the Mexican Peso in that period saw a huge rise in their values.
Most recently, the USD/MXN price has been in a strong downward shift, helped by the ongoing deglobalization trends.
As more American companies move away from China, they are finding Mexico to be a good alternative.
That’s because Mexico has lower labor standards than the US and the country is a member of USMCA (a replacement of NAFTA that allows trade to flow smoothly between the US, Mexico, and Canada).
| Date | 1 US Dollar in MXN |
|---|---|
| Dec 05, 2025 | 18.174204 MXN |
| Dec 06, 2025 | 18.174604 MXN |
| Dec 07, 2025 | 18.175120 MXN |
| Dec 08, 2025 | 18.263700 MXN |
| Dec 09, 2025 | 18.197499 MXN |
| Dec 10, 2025 | 18.160298 MXN |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 18.034990 MXN |
| Dec 12, 2025 | 18.014404 MXN |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 18.013904 MXN |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 18.205039 MXN |
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