USD to MXN Forecast - July 2025

The big picture: why the dollar is trending lower against the peso

Over the past several weeks, the U.S. dollar has weakened against the Mexican peso. That means $1 now buys fewer pesos than it did earlier this year. Here’s why:

Mexico’s interest rates remain high

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is holding interest rates at 8%. Higher rates attract global investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the peso.

The US dollar is losing momentum

Weaker inflation and economic data in the U.S. have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates soon. Lower U.S. rates make the dollar less appealing to investors.

Mexico benefits from rising oil prices

As an oil-exporting country, Mexico sees gains when oil prices rise. This supports its economy and strengthens the peso.

Positive trade developments

Recent progress in U.S.–Mexico trade discussions, including tariff reductions, has boosted investor confidence in the Mexican economy and its currency.

Where we are now

As of early July 2025, the USD/MXN exchange rate sits around 19.00, down from previous highs. The peso recently hit its strongest level in nearly 10 months.

While the overall trend favors a stronger peso, short-term fluctuations in the dollar are still possible.

Key levels to watch

Monitoring price levels can help you time your transfers better:

• Support (floor): 18.83 - if the dollar drops below this level, it could decline further to 18.50.

• Short-term resistance: 19.25 - a rise above this could signal temporary dollar strength.

• Longer-term resistance: 19.40 and 20.00 - these are less likely to be breached unless major global events occur.

What could change the outlook?

Several factors could shift the USD/MXN exchange rate in the coming weeks:

• Geopolitical events: Tensions in areas like the Middle East can push investors into “safe haven” currencies like the U.S. dollar, creating short-term rebounds in USD/MXN.

• Interest rate shifts: If Mexico unexpectedly cuts interest rates or the U.S. delays planned cuts, the dollar could strengthen temporarily.

• Market patterns: Technical analysts are watching for a possible “death cross” (bearish signal) but note the market is oversold, which means a short-term bounce in the dollar could occur before further declines.

Forecast for July 2025

The dollar may continue to weaken slightly or stay near current levels.

The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to remain within: 18.60 to 19.25

This range favors the Mexican peso and means your U.S. dollars may buy fewer pesos if current trends continue.

Is it a good time to convert USD to MXN?

If you're sending money from the U.S. to Mexico:

• Now is a favorable time to act. The peso is gaining strength, and the longer you wait, the fewer pesos you may get per dollar.

• Short-term events could offer better rates temporarily. Watch for brief dollar rebounds (especially if USD/MXN nears 19.25), which could provide slightly better value.

• Keep an eye on: oil prices, Banxico’s next policy meeting (June 26), and U.S. Federal Reserve announcements, all of these can move the exchange rate quickly.

Live USD to MXN exchange rates

Converting USD to MXN

If you are planning to send USD to Mexico, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most MXN on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of $7,000 transfer from the USA to Mexico in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

History of the USD to MXN

The USD/MXN cross has been around for decades because of the close geographical and economic relationship between the United States (US) and Mexico. Mexico started using the Peso during its colonial period while the US dollar was introduced in 1862.

For the most part, the Mexican Peso has tumbled against the US dollar because of the strength of the American economy. Data shows that the USD to MXN pair was trading at 9.60 on average in 2002. It then surged to a record high of 25.35 in 2020, which is equivalent to a 168% increase.

There is no denying the fact that people holding assets in the Mexican Peso in that period saw a huge rise in their values.

Most recently, the USD/MXN price has been in a strong downward shift, helped by the ongoing deglobalization trends. As more American companies move away from China, they are finding Mexico to be a good alternative.

That’s because Mexico has lower labor standards than the US and the country is a member of USMCA (a replacement of NAFTA that allows trade to flow smoothly between the US, Mexico, and Canada).

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