USD to MXN Forecast - January 2026
If you're planning to send U.S. dollars to Mexico and receive Mexican pesos (MXN), here’s a straightforward look at what’s happening in the currency market and what you can expect in the weeks ahead.
It is currently trading at 17.9315.
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What is likely to happen to USD/MXN in January 2026
Over the next month, USD to MXN is more likely to drift lower than rise, mainly because Mexico’s high interest rates keep supporting the peso and the US dollar looks vulnerable if rate cuts stay on the table. Expect choppy days and occasional spikes higher, but unless USD to MXN reclaims 18.24 and especially 18.50, the bias stays toward 17.89 and possibly 17.60 to 17.50, which would reduce how many pesos your dollars buy.
USD to MXN: Where It Stands
USD to MXN has been sliding, meaning the Mexican peso has been gaining value against the US dollar. The pair is trading around the high 17s to low 18s, near the lower end of its recent multi month range.
Right now, the market tone still favors a slightly stronger peso over the next month, but with a real chance of short, sharp bounce ups in USD to MXN along the way.
What’s Driving USD to MXN?
1) Interest rates favor Mexico (the carry effect).
Mexico’s central bank rate is still much higher than the US rate, which encourages global investors to park money in peso assets for better interest. That steady demand tends to support MXN and push USD to MXN lower.
2) The US dollar has been soft.
If markets expect the US Federal Reserve to cut rates again, US yields often fall and the dollar can weaken. A weaker USD usually means USD to MXN drifts lower.
3) Banxico guidance matters as much as the decision.
Even if Mexico cuts rates a little, the key is whether Banxico signals it will move slowly because inflation is still above target. A “higher for longer” message supports MXN.
What Do the Charts Say?
USD to MXN has been in a downtrend for months, and momentum still leans bearish. That said, selling is getting a bit stretched, which often leads to brief rebounds even inside a downtrend.
Key levels to watch:
Type | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Resistance | 18.24 | Near term ceiling where rallies may stall |
Resistance | 18.50 | Bigger barrier, break above can change the tone |
Support | 17.89 | Recent low area, break below opens more downside |
Support | 17.60 to 17.50 | Major “next stop” support zone |
What to Watch in the Next Month
The events and likely to move your exchange rate: Banxico communication on the pace of 2026 cuts is crucial. If Banxico sounds cautious due to inflation, the peso can stay firm and USD to MXN can grind lower.
US rate expectations and US bond yields are the other main driver. If US data is weaker and rate cut odds rise, that usually pressures USD to MXN downward.
Risk sentiment headlines matter more than usual. Any global risk scare can cause a quick “flight to safety” into USD, which can temporarily lift USD to MXN.
Risks Ahead
A sudden risk off shock (geopolitics or market stress) can weaken emerging market currencies like MXN quickly. In that case, USD to MXN can spike higher fast even if nothing changed in Mexico.
A less dovish Fed is another risk. If US inflation re heats or Fed speakers push back on cuts, the dollar can rebound and USD to MXN could jump toward 18.24 or 18.50.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to MXN Abroad
If USD to MXN falls, each US dollar buys fewer pesos, so your recipient gets less MXN. The current setup slightly favors more peso strength, so waiting carries some risk if you need to send soon.
If you’re sending USD/MXN this month, consider this:
If you must send within 2 to 4 weeks: consider splitting transfers into 2 or 3 smaller sends to average the rate.
If you can be flexible: watch for bounce ups toward 18.24 as potential “better moments” to convert USD to MXN.
If USD to MXN breaks below 17.89: the next likely zone is 17.60 to 17.50, which would be worse for USD senders.
Live USD to MXN exchange rates
Converting USD to MXN
If you are planning to send USD to Mexico, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most MXN on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in January:
History of the USD to MXN
The USD/MXN cross has been around for decades because of the close geographical and economic relationship between the United States (US) and Mexico.
Mexico started using the Peso during its colonial period while the US dollar was introduced in 1862.
For the most part, the Mexican Peso has tumbled against the US dollar because of the strength of the American economy.
Data shows that the USD to MXN pair was trading at 9.60 on average in 2002. It then surged to a record high of 25.35 in 2020, which is equivalent to a 168% increase.
There is no denying the fact that people holding assets in the Mexican Peso in that period saw a huge rise in their values.
Most recently, the USD/MXN price has been in a strong downward shift, helped by the ongoing deglobalization trends.
As more American companies move away from China, they are finding Mexico to be a good alternative.
That’s because Mexico has lower labor standards than the US and the country is a member of USMCA (a replacement of NAFTA that allows trade to flow smoothly between the US, Mexico, and Canada).
| Date | 1 US Dollar in MXN |
|---|---|
| Dec 26, 2025 | 17.910804 MXN |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 17.910804 MXN |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 17.901870 MXN |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 17.974799 MXN |
| Dec 30, 2025 | 17.993799 MXN |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 18.022855 MXN |
| Jan 01, 2026 | 17.987160 MXN |
| Jan 02, 2026 | 17.905104 MXN |
| Jan 03, 2026 | 17.905104 MXN |
| Jan 04, 2026 | 17.931500 MXN |
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