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What is likely to happen to USD/MXN in November 2025
The dollar is under pressure, and the peso looks strong for now.
Unless there’s a big shift in global news or central bank policies, the USD/MXN exchange rate will likely keep drifting lower, possibly toward 18.00.
That means sending USD to Mexico now may get you more pesos than if you wait.
Keep watching the 18.20 and 18.80 levels, they’re important signs of where the rate could go next.
USD to MXN: Where It Stands
The U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso have been moving in a downward trend, meaning the peso has mostly strengthened against the dollar.
Today, the USD is worth about 18.45 pesos, slightly lower than in previous weeks.
While there have been some small rallies where the dollar bounced back briefly, the overall direction points to a stronger peso, for now.
What’s Driving USD to MXN?
Several important factors are influencing the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Mexican peso:
Interest rate differences
Mexico currently has much higher interest rates than the U.S., which makes holding pesos more attractive for investors.
This increases demand for pesos and lowers the USD/MXN exchange rate.
Bank of Mexico signals
Mexico’s central bank recently hinted it won’t cut interest rates soon due to stubborn inflation.
This supports peso strength.
Weak U.S. dollar
The U.S. dollar has been under pressure due to falling bond yields, talks of a government shutdown, and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising rates.
U.S. economy helps Mexico
A strong U.S. economy benefits Mexican exports. Surprisingly, this supports the peso too, since Mexico sells a lot to the U.S.
What Do the Charts Say?
On the technical side (based on price charts), the trend remains mostly in favor of a stronger peso:
Strong resistance: The USD struggles to move above 18.50–18.55 pesos. This area has stopped recent rallies.
Key support: 18.20 pesos is a very important level. If the USD falls below this, it could drop quickly to 18.00 or even lower.
Rally watch: If USD/MXN moves above 18.65 or 18.80, that would break the pattern and signal potential dollar strength.
So far, most traders are betting against the dollar (called “fading the rally”) when it tries to go higher.
What to Watch in Next Month
In the next month, keep an eye on:
U.S. financial news: If the government shutdown or economic data cause uncertainty, the dollar may weaken, helping the peso.
Mexican inflation reports: If inflation stays high, Mexico is less likely to cut interest rates, which supports the peso.
Central bank comments: Any new announcements from either the Bank of Mexico or the Federal Reserve could change expectations quickly.
Key price levels: Watch closely if the pair moves below 18.20 or breaks above 18.80.
Risks Ahead
There are some scenarios that could flip the trend:
A sudden rise in U.S. interest rates or strong U.S. data could boost the dollar.
If global markets turn more fearful (for example due to geopolitical events), the dollar might rise as a “safer” currency.
If Mexico’s inflation falls sharply, the Bank of Mexico might cut rates sooner, weakening the peso.
These risks could push USD/MXN higher, especially if it breaks key resistance levels.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to MXN Abroad
If you're sending U.S. dollars to Mexico, recent trends mean you'll get fewer pesos for your money today than a few weeks ago.
If the peso keeps strengthening (USD goes down), you’ll get even fewer pesos in the near future.
So if you plan to send money soon, you might want to consider doing it sooner rather than later, especially if USD/MXN falls below 18.20.
However, if USD/MXN breaks above 18.80, waiting could give you more favorable rates.
But right now, the trend suggests more peso strength (less favorable for sending USD).
Live USD to MXN exchange rates
Converting USD to MXN
If you are planning to send USD to Mexico, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most MXN on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in November:
History of the USD to MXN
The USD/MXN cross has been around for decades because of the close geographical and economic relationship between the United States (US) and Mexico.
Mexico started using the Peso during its colonial period while the US dollar was introduced in 1862.
For the most part, the Mexican Peso has tumbled against the US dollar because of the strength of the American economy.
Data shows that the USD to MXN pair was trading at 9.60 on average in 2002. It then surged to a record high of 25.35 in 2020, which is equivalent to a 168% increase.
There is no denying the fact that people holding assets in the Mexican Peso in that period saw a huge rise in their values.
Most recently, the USD/MXN price has been in a strong downward shift, helped by the ongoing deglobalization trends.
As more American companies move away from China, they are finding Mexico to be a good alternative.
That’s because Mexico has lower labor standards than the US and the country is a member of USMCA (a replacement of NAFTA that allows trade to flow smoothly between the US, Mexico, and Canada).
| Date | 1 US Dollar in MXN |
|---|---|
| Nov 02, 2025 | 18.557815 MXN |
| Nov 03, 2025 | 18.494055 MXN |
| Nov 04, 2025 | 18.690500 MXN |
| Nov 05, 2025 | 18.593495 MXN |
| Nov 06, 2025 | 18.571499 MXN |
| Nov 07, 2025 | 18.451604 MXN |
| Nov 08, 2025 | 18.446050 MXN |
| Nov 09, 2025 | 18.444560 MXN |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 18.381997 MXN |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 18.375598 MXN |
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