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What is likely to happen to USD/MXN in October 2025
USD is weaker against MXN and could fall further to 18.20 or 18.00.
Mexico’s high interest rates and strong investor confidence support the peso.
Watch the September 17 Fed meeting and U.S. inflation data for possible changes.
If you’re sending money from the U.S. to Mexico, it may be smart to do it sooner rather than later.
USD to MXN: Where It Stands
Right now, the U.S. dollar (USD) is under pressure against the Mexican peso (MXN), and the exchange rate has been drifting lower.
The pair is trading just above a key support level around 18.50 pesos per U.S. dollar. If the USD weakens more, we could see it fall to 18.20 or even 18.00 in the coming weeks.
What’s Driving USD to MXN?
Many factors are at play, but here are the big ones:
Interest Rates
Mexico's interest rate is higher than the U.S. right now (7.5% vs. 4.25%), making the peso more attractive.
This “rate gap” draws in investors looking for better returns, which helps support the MXN.
U.S. Economic Data
Strong U.S. job numbers and economic growth have given the dollar some strength, but the Federal Reserve is being careful.
Expectations for future rate cuts in the U.S. are still uncertain, which puts pressure on the USD.
Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico)
Although Banxico has cut rates in 2025, rising inflation in Mexico might stop further cuts, helping to keep the peso strong.
Global Sentiment
Investors are in a “risk-on” mood again, meaning they are more willing to invest in emerging markets like Mexico.
That supports the peso and keeps the USD in check.
What Do the Charts Say?
Technically, USD to MXN is in a clear downtrend:
Key Resistance: Prices have failed to move above the 50-day moving average around 18.65 and strong resistance near 19.00. These levels are acting as a ceiling.
Key Support: The important support level is 18.50. If this breaks, the next support targets are 18.20 and then 18.00.
Bearish Patterns: Recent price action shows a bearish “inverted hammer” candle and low momentum, signaling the market may continue to favor MXN.
Unless the USD can break back above 18.65 or 19.00, the peso is likely to stay dominant.
What to Watch in Next Month
A few key events to focus on:
September 17 Federal Reserve Meeting: Any signal about interest rate changes in the U.S. could shift USD/MXN in either direction.
Inflation Data (PCE Index): If inflation in the U.S. is higher than expected, it may stop the Fed from cutting rates, which could support a short-term USD bounce.
Banxico’s Rate Talk: Mexico’s central bank may slow its rate cuts if inflation rises, potentially keeping the peso strong.
Risks Ahead
Some factors could suddenly change the market's direction:
If the U.S. economy weakens sharply, people may rush to the U.S. dollar as a safe option, pushing USD higher.
If Banxico cuts rates again or if Mexican inflation spikes higher than expected, the MXN could lose ground.
Global trade tensions or political events can cause sudden volatility in this currency pair.
What This Means If You’re Sending USD to MXN Abroad
If you're sending U.S. dollars to Mexico, your money is buying fewer pesos than earlier this year.
If the trend continues and the USD drops further to 18.20 or 18.00, you'll get even fewer pesos for every transferred dollar.
If you can, consider sending money soon, before these lower levels take hold.
If USD bounces back above 18.65, better rates may return, but that’s not guaranteed.
Live USD to MXN exchange rates
Converting USD to MXN
If you are planning to send USD to Mexico, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most MXN on the other end.
Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in October:
History of the USD to MXN
The USD/MXN cross has been around for decades because of the close geographical and economic relationship between the United States (US) and Mexico.
Mexico started using the Peso during its colonial period while the US dollar was introduced in 1862.
For the most part, the Mexican Peso has tumbled against the US dollar because of the strength of the American economy.
Data shows that the USD to MXN pair was trading at 9.60 on average in 2002. It then surged to a record high of 25.35 in 2020, which is equivalent to a 168% increase.
There is no denying the fact that people holding assets in the Mexican Peso in that period saw a huge rise in their values.
Most recently, the USD/MXN price has been in a strong downward shift, helped by the ongoing deglobalization trends.
As more American companies move away from China, they are finding Mexico to be a good alternative.
That’s because Mexico has lower labor standards than the US and the country is a member of USMCA (a replacement of NAFTA that allows trade to flow smoothly between the US, Mexico, and Canada).
| Date | 1 US Dollar in MXN |
|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | 18.363804 MXN |
| Sep 28, 2025 | 18.362200 MXN |
| Sep 29, 2025 | 18.361901 MXN |
| Sep 30, 2025 | 18.316985 MXN |
| Oct 01, 2025 | 18.385335 MXN |
| Oct 02, 2025 | 18.427027 MXN |
| Oct 03, 2025 | 18.398604 MXN |
| Oct 04, 2025 | 18.398704 MXN |
| Oct 05, 2025 | 18.435830 MXN |
| Oct 06, 2025 | 18.342590 MXN |
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