USD to COP Forecast - July 2025

Why is the Colombian peso weak?

There are several factors behind the decline:

Colombia’s government spending

Colombia is running a fiscal deficit of 7.1% in 2025 and has temporarily removed its debt rule, which limits how much the government can borrow.

Excessive borrowing erodes investor confidence, weakening the peso.

Credit downgrades

Major credit rating agencies like Moody’s and S&P have warned that Colombia is becoming riskier for investors.

These warnings push foreign capital out, weakening the currency.

Central bank hesitation

Even though inflation in Colombia is improving, the central bank has paused rate cuts, signaling uncertainty about economic stability.

This indecision adds to market nervousness and weakens the peso.

Strong U.S. dollar

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains firm due to a strong labor market and positive economic signals.

A stronger dollar makes it more expensive to buy it with pesos.

Is it a good time to convert USD to COP?

If you're sending USD to Colombia

Your money goes further than it did last year, and may stretch even more over the next month if the peso weakens further.

If you're in Colombia sending COP to the U.S.

Now is a challenging time, as you'll need more pesos to buy each dollar. If your transfer isn’t urgent, consider waiting for a potential recovery later in the year.

Support and resistance levels

These are the key exchange rate markers to keep in mind:

• Support (floor): Around 3,950 COP per USD – if the exchange rate drops this low, it may bounce back up.

• Resistance (ceiling): Around 4,300 COP per USD – if it breaks this level, the dollar could get even stronger.

• Likely trading range: Between 4,100 and 4,250 COP/USD for the coming weeks.

Short-term forecast

• The peso is expected to remain weak or weaken slightly more, mainly due to fiscal instability and negative outlooks from credit rating agencies.

• The USD/COP exchange rate may move closer to 4,250, favoring anyone sending dollars into Colombia.

Risks to watch

Some scenarios that could change the outlook:

• A surprise rate cut by Colombia’s central bank could briefly strengthen the peso.

• Unexpected political or trade instability in the U.S. could weaken the dollar slightly, though this is less likely in the next month.

Live USD to COP exchange rates

Converting USD to COP

If you are planning to send USD to Colombia, you need to pick the right money transfer company to get the most COP on the other end.

Depending on your needs, it's best to use one of the following companies in July:

*Based on our data of $7,000 transfer from the USA to Canada in July 2025. For other amounts, please run a live search to get the best exchange rate.

The overall weakness of the Colombian Peso against the USD reflects the disparities between the two economies. On the one hand, the US is a diversified economy with a GDP of over $23 trillion and a population of over 330 million. Conversely, Colombia is an emerging market with about 62 million people and a GDP of over $361 billion.

History of the USD to COP pair

The history of the USD to COP exchange rate can be traced from the historical ties between the US and Colombia. The records show that Colombia initially used the Spanish real until 1820 and moved to Colombia real post-1820 till 1837.

After 1837, the Colombian Peso became the primary unit of currency. At that time, Colombia was involved in trading activities with the US. The US dollar was introduced in 1792 when the US Mint started operations.

A lot has happened since the early days of the USD/COP exchange rate, including the end of the gold standard in 1971.

As shown below, the USD to COP pair has generally been in a strong bullish trend over the years. The only time when the Colombian Peso strengthened against the US dollar was between 2002 and ~2012. This period coincided with the end of the dot com bubble and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009.

Since 2012, the USD to COP pair has been in a broadly upward trend that saw a rise from a low of ~1,650 to over 5,000.

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